Why Do 5pm Collisions Jump 43% After the Clocks Go Back?
Quick answer: In the three weeks after the UK clocks went back on 25 October 2026, collisions at 5pm rose 43% nationwide, according to insurer Ageas's analysis of more than 500,000 Department for Transport collision records from 2021 to 2025. Serious-injury collisions at 5pm rose 54% and fatal collisions at 5pm rose 42%. Nine in ten of the extra collisions happened on wet, damp or otherwise adverse road surfaces.
The 5pm spike in numbers
Ageas compared the three weeks before the autumn clock change with the three weeks after it, using DfT collision records from 2021 to 2025. The 5pm hour stood out:
- Collisions at 5pm rose 43% nationwide after the clocks went back.
- Serious-injury collisions at 5pm rose 54%.
- Fatal collisions at 5pm rose 42%.
- 90% of the additional 5pm collisions happened on wet, damp or otherwise adverse road surfaces.
The analysis covers five years of clock changes, so the spike repeated year after year. For the wider picture of what the clock change does to Britain's roads, see Do the Clocks Going Back Make Britain's Roads Deadlier?
Why 5pm, and why the clocks matter
The clocks went back to Greenwich Mean Time at 2am on Sunday 25 October 2026, so from Monday 26 October the evening commute between 5pm and 7pm — when roads are at their busiest — happens in darkness instead of daylight.
That hour is already the most dangerous part of the day for people on foot. The Department for Transport's 2025 pedestrian factsheet, using 2021 to 2025 data, shows the weekday peak for pedestrians killed or seriously injured is 3pm to 6pm, covering the school run home and the start of the evening commute. When the clocks change, that whole window moves into dusk and darkness overnight, while drivers, pedestrians and cyclists are still adjusting.
The 5pm hour is the busiest hour of the evening rush, it is dark, and in late October and November often wet as well — the combination the Ageas figures are measuring.
Where the rise is steepest
The rise was not even across the country. Ageas reported the following increases in 5pm collisions in the three weeks after the clock change, compared with the three weeks before:
- Wales: 83%
- North West: 78%
- Scotland: 75%
- West Midlands: 62%
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 61%
- East of England: 41%
- South East: 34%
- North East: 30%
- London: 29%
- South West: 28%
- East Midlands: 26%
Scotland's 75% rise makes it the third-highest region in the UK. Some smaller police-force areas recorded even larger rises — Merseyside 133%, Hertfordshire and Suffolk 100% each, and Cheshire 94% — but those are force areas, not regions, so they cannot be ranked against the regional figures above.
No region escaped the effect. See UK road accidents by council for police-reported collision data for your local area.
Wet roads, not darkness alone
The most important detail in the Ageas analysis is the road surface. Nine in ten of the additional 5pm collisions happened on wet, damp or otherwise adverse surfaces. Darkness alone does not explain the spike — darkness plus deteriorating weather does.
That matches what older research found. The RAC Foundation's 2018 analysis of six years of police data found 278 more injury collisions on average in the two weeks after the autumn clock change than in the two weeks before, with three quarters of the extra collisions in the afternoon. The Foundation itself noted that collisions in adverse weather rose by a similar proportion, and that darker days and worsening weather together probably drive the spike.
A National Audit Office analysis of 2000 to 2007 data found about 10% more collisions killing or injuring a pedestrian in the four weeks after the change. Both studies are dated, which is why the new Ageas analysis — five recent years and more than half a million records — matters: it confirms the old pattern with fresh data and pins the risk to one hour, 5pm.
What to do on the dark commute
Ageas's advice for the darker evenings is practical, and it matches the figures above:
- Drivers: check every light on the car — headlights, brake lights, indicators — before setting off. Use dipped headlights in poor light, slow down to suit the conditions, and allow extra braking distance on wet roads.
- Keep windscreens clean to reduce glare, clear interior misting before setting off, and check tyre pressures as temperatures fall.
- Watch for wet leaves, which cut grip sharply, and take extra care on wooded or semi-rural routes at dawn and dusk, when wildlife is most active.
- Pedestrians and cyclists: be visible. Wear something reflective, use lights on your bike, and cross where drivers can see you — most of the extra post-clock-change collisions happen in the afternoon gloom.
- Everyone: the 4pm to 7pm window is the danger zone. If you can shift a journey out of it, or take extra care within it, the statistics say it matters.
See today's accident reports for what is happening on Britain's roads right now, and the article archive for more data-led road-safety stories.
How these numbers were counted
The headline figures come from insurer Ageas's analysis of more than 500,000 Department for Transport collision records from 2021 to 2025, comparing the three weeks before each autumn clock change with the three weeks after it. It is an insurer's analysis of DfT records, not a DfT release. The regional figures are for UK regions; the larger Merseyside, Hertfordshire, Suffolk and Cheshire figures are for police-force areas, a different geography.
The RAC Foundation figure comes from its 2018 analysis of six years (2012 to 2017) of police personal-injury-collision data, comparing the two weeks before and after the autumn clock change. The National Audit Office figure comes from its 2009 analysis of 2000 to 2007 data. The DfT pedestrian factsheet figure covers 2021 to 2025. The latest year of data can be revised as police reports are finalised.
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